The ripple effects of the war in Gaza are likely to knock Lebanon’s fragile economy, which had begun making a tepid recovery after years of crisis, back into recession, the World Bank said in a report released on Thursday.
Before the outbreak of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, the World Bank had projected that Lebanon’s economy would grow in 2023, by a meager 0.2 per cent, for the first time since 2018, driven largely by remittances sent from Lebanese working abroad and by an uptick in tourism.
However, since the war in Gaza began, there have been near-daily clashes between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israeli forces along the Lebanon-Israel border, with fears of an escalation to a full-scale war. The tensions put a major damper on travel to Lebanon, at least temporarily.
Data analysed by the World Bank in the economic monitor report shows that the percentage of scheduled flights to Lebanon that were actually completed plummeted from 98.8 per cent on October 7 to 63.3 per cent on November 4.
Arrivals have picked up as the low-level conflict on the border did not immediately escalate and as many Lebanese living abroad came home for the holidays. However, the World Bank projected that instead of growing slightly in 2023, Lebanon’s GDP will shrink by -0.6 per cent to -0.9per cent.
The projections are based on the assumption that the border conflict will continue at its current level without any major escalation by the end of the year.
“Lebanon’s reliance on tourism and remittance inflows is neither a viable economic strategy nor an economic crisis resolution plan,” the report noted. “Because tourism tends to be volatile and subject to external and internal shocks … the sector cannot substitute for more sustainable and diverse drivers of growth.”
