By Desmond Nleya
Artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape the global economy and boost international trade by nearly 40 percent within the next two decades, according to the World Trade Report 2025 released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariat.
The report projects that, under different scenarios of technological adoption and supportive policy frameworks, global trade could expand by 34 to 37 percent by 2040. In parallel, global GDP is forecast to grow by 12 to 13 percent.
“AI has the potential to cut trade costs and drive productivity,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. “But without inclusive policies, inequalities in access will persist. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all.”
The report underscores that the extent of these gains will hinge on efforts to bridge the digital divide, enhance workforce skills, and ensure open and predictable trading conditions. It also highlights the central role of trade in providing critical inputs—such as semiconductors and raw materials—valued at USD 2.3 trillion in 2023 alone.
For developing and middle-income countries, narrowing the digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies by half could yield income gains of up to 15 percent, the study suggests. However, challenges remain. Quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods have surged from 130 in 2012 to almost 500 in 2024, while tariffs in some low-income economies reach as high as 45 percent.
The report urges greater investment in education and training to reduce inequality within economies. It also calls on WTO members to expand commitments under existing trade agreements to ensure AI technologies become more affordable and accessible worldwide.
Source: Emirates News Agency
